Description: This article discusses techniques used to create risk scores to help determine appropriate primary care panel sizes for a provider organization.

Description: A Delphi Research Study of Long-Term Care Financing Solutions." Two members of the Project Oversight Group discuss the reasons for the study and the Delphi method and summarize the results of the study.

Description: Many Americans will need long term care in future years, yet only 10 percent of those 50 and over have LTC insurance, and public programs are not funded to provide care for all who need it. The Long Term Care Section and the Forecasting and Futurism Section have co-sponsored a Delphi study, code named “Land This Plane,” with a lofty objective: to create a vision for how America ought to deal with the impending Long Term Care crisis. This article describes the results of the study that were available at the time this article was written.

Description: Feature article discussing futurism and a study that contains in-depth descriptions of the Delphi and TIA methods; listings of the rationales and thought processes, the plausible future developments that could influence the values of these four economic variables and the resulting “fan of possibilities” for the values of these variables

Description: A good primer on how clinical studies should be conducted and how statistics are used and misused to influence us.

Description: The winner's curse, applied to Affordable Care Act plan pricing.

Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: Actuaries have the opportunity to transform to a new role that utilizes predictive analytics and new data sources such as epigenetics, to better humankind.

Description: This article describes the use of artificial society modeling to gauge the effect of insurance agent population and effectiveness on individual life insurance sales. This is part of an ongoing effort to extend the use of one type of agent-based modeling beyond health care, but is far from a practical application at this point.

Description: Anders discusses how skills in PA techniques don't have to become the focal point for all actuaries, but they can be another tool in the toolbox for all of us.